More of the Same …



What is underway in this world right now is more of the same. It’s a song: ‘La la-la- la-la … more of the same!

There is more of the same thievery on the part of the establishment, everywhere in the world. There is more of the same poverty, there is more of the same denial … There is more of the same advertising for unlimited resources, more of the same consumer sales, more of the same real estate rebounds, more of the same freeway lane-miles added to more of the same freeways …

More of the same hollow, pointless ‘progress’.

More of the same, the management systems the world has relied upon since the end of World War Two are breaking down but more applications of the same failed management approaches are underway. To support more of the same failures there is more of the same moral hazard, more of the same credit provision, more of the same propaganda and lies. There is more of the same breakages with more of the same exponentially increasing consequences. There is more of the same corruption, more of the same outright pillage and bullying.

There more of the same indifference and refusal to face reality. There is more of the same flight out of banking deposits into risky currency traps even as there is more of the same flight into banking deposits! There is more of the same sense of foreboding, that there is no way out of the traps that we have built for ourselves, that the end of the ‘good old days’ is right around the corner. At the same time, there is more of the same begging/wishing for more of the same ‘good old days’.

With more of the same taking place right now, less of the same will certainly be a whole lot worse. Pray thee Lord for more of the same.

More or the same makes life easy for the analyst even as it makes it more difficult. More of the same becomes very hard to become outraged about. More of the same evil: how do Alex Jones or Yves Smith remain enraged at the highest pitch day after day about more of the same perfidy? The government will be just as conniving next year as it was ten years ago, the big Wall Street banks will still shove more of the same blood funnels seeking more of the same easy payoffs and more of the same bonuses. Who really cares?

The market can offer more of the same a lot longer than you can remain solvent!

At the same time, more of the same analysis becomes very simple: readers can turn to older articles to see how the same really was when it first emerged. It’s more of the same now! It can’t get any easier!

Singularity = self-writing analytical articles!

 
Edward Chapotin house 1

Unknown photographer: Dr. Edward Chapotin house and his medical practice next door in 1915, on Woodward Avenue @ Woodbridge Street, from the Burton Historical Collection, Detroit Public Library- University of Michigan. Note the streetcar tracks on Woodward. This business/residence was located within a few blocks of the Detroit River.

More of the same lurks on both sides of the political divide from Richard Alford by way of Yves Smith, (Naked Capitalism):

 

Richard Alford: Fed Policy – (more of the same) Old Wine in New Bottles

Yves here. This is an important post, in that it describes how the Fed, despite the unconventional look of some of its measures, is using more extreme variants of traditional policy approaches, and why that is not such a hot idea.

One place where I quibble with Alford is in attributing the way Greenspan dropped short term rates dramatically in the early 1990s recession as driven by unemployment policy. At the time, there was considerable concern about the health and stability of banks in the US. It wasn’t just savings and loans that were hemorrhaging losses. Citibank nearly went under. Some major commercial banks in Texas and the Southwest had lent heavily to spec commercial real estate projects at just the wrong time. And although it was mainly foreign banks that hoovered up participations in LBO financings, like Campeau, that came a cropper, US financial firms had exposures as well. Greenspan’s driving short term rates to the floor created an extremely large spread between short and long term interest rates, enabling wounded banks to borrow short and lend long, and rebuild their capital bases out of artificially high profits.

Another quibble is at the very end, where Alford is correctly concerned about our sustained trade deficits, but also is unduly exercised about our fiscal deficits. They are in fact necessary and desirable as long as the business sector keeps net saving, which it did even in the years immediately preceding the crisis. If capitalists refuse to play their proper role and loot rather than dedicate resources to future growth, government has to step in. But as we are seeing now, what is unsustainable about this arrangement is the politics much more than the economics.

 

Here’s Alford:

 

But Have We Seen It All Before?

For all their differences in perspective and emphasis, most of the opposing evaluations of the merits of Fed policy have one element in common: They all appear to be largely prisoners of a Phillips Curve mentality. Policy is set based only on the current levels of unemployment and inflation. Policymakers, economists and pundits do not look beyond near-term changes in unemployment and inflation when evaluate the risks and returns of alternative policy responses.

However, there may be a more troublesome risk attached to current monetary policy. The risk is that the current policy stance – low interest rates as well as QE- is reducing the probability of a return to self–sustaining economic growth … “

 

Alford is a very bright guy and he’s paid his dues within the money management ‘racket’. Yves = ditto. Nevertheless, it’s impossible to take either one seriously. What does ‘sustainable’ mean? More of the same tract houses? More of the same auto sales? More of the same insurance and finance? More of the same strip malls and Pizza Huts? More of the same F-35 fighter jets? More of the same coal mines, gas pipelines, VLCCs … how about more of the same airports? What is sustainable about any of this? How about those tens- of thousands of tombstone-like concrete towers in China? How many more-of-the-same vacant apartments are needed before the Chinese get to sustainability heaven?

How does everyone get there? There are seven billion of us meat-bags right now on Planet ‘E’ and only 15% have automobiles. Do we ‘arrive’ when 30% become automotive? How about 50%? Where do we put the 800 million or so extra cars? Where do we get the fuel for them? Does the US build another 55,000 mile interstate highway system to go along with the 55,000 mile system we already have? We cannot afford to fix our roads now! How is more of the same sustainable again?

‘Sustainable’ is gross abuse of the language. In order to ‘have’ our desired industrial goodies we must borrow. Our machines do not pay their own way. If they did there would be no debts as deploying machines would retire them. That they do not do so is self-evident. With thousands of millions of machines there is an exponential increase in debt required to assemble them and provide them with fuel. This is debt that even the entire world’s bloated finance establishment cannot provide.

Credit is a resource in the sense that it is a means to allocate other resources: with less of these other resources to allocate, adding credit becomes pointless and unaffordable. US recessions from 1970- onward were the result of fuel shortages- and price shocks including the current version. Even the modest credit demands of the earlier time periods … were breaking. Today’s high real credit requirements are destructive in and of themselves without the added blows of high fuel prices.

People must understand: the Glory Days are gone and never coming back … ! Santa Claus is not going to come down the chimney with some kind of industry … to take the human race by the hand and lead it into the Promised Land. Our collective future is binary: we are either joint-and severally destroyed by shortages and inability to adjust to them … or we escape destruction by the skin on our noses.

Watch what the plutocrats are doing right now! They know what’s going on because they can afford ‘intelligence’ and are ruthless enough to take advantage! They use the time remaining … to steal … then leave the rest of us to Mad Max.

It will take every single inner resource the human race possesses … clarity, honor, courage, perseverance, helpfulness, strength, wisdom … the willingness to endure tremendous suffering and hardship for decades and perhaps centuries … what is absent in popular culture particularly among finance analysts … it will take all of these things and more to escape our self-constructed annihilation.

Right now, this isn’t happening. There is too much fantasy thinking and denial about redistribution … what is there to redistribute, exactly? Deck chairs on the Titanic?

Here is another variation on the theme … from Bill Buckler @ ZeroHedge:

 

The Puppet Master – Government

For hundreds if not thousands of years of human history, the vast majority were all too well aware that the government “lives” on the backs of the people. Today, that long-held knowledge has been astonishingly, successfully reversed. Today, the perceived “wisdom” is that the people live on the back of the government. In the realm of the history of ideas, it took many centuries to bring forward the idea that a life might be lived without constant kowtowing to government. It has only taken one century – the time since World War One – to all but totally submerge that legacy in a new wave of government dependency.

The old and tired phrase – “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you” – is met by as much derision as it has ever been when people bemoan the impositions of their rulers. But those same people rely on the government to insulate them from the consequences of any action they may choose to undertake.

 

The great myth is that our industrial economy is ‘productive’, that it is saddled temporarily by parasitic governments (fascists) or bankers (socialists). Get rid of one or the other and the industrial economy will spread its wings and fly off to consumer good paradise, taking the American Worker along with it.

This is false: the product of industrial economies is waste. Because waste is not a good there are no organic returns for industrial activities. Instead, the cost of the activities must be met with credit. To provide the needed credit there are bankers, to service the debts there are governments.

That this is so is self-evident: if industry was productive — if there was any product at all other than waste — there would be no crisis and no debts. Any shortfalls would be met by deploying additional machines, which would pay for themselves, thereby retiring their own debts … and ours besides.

 
Edward Chapotin house 2
 

The intersection of Woodward Avenue and Woodbridge Street is long-gone, so are Doctor Chapotin’s restrained yet whimsical houses. All of them are replaced by the urban equivalent of the place-mat, the concrete pad and grassy area(s). Note the occasional tree.

 
Edward Chapotin house 3
 

Forsaken and bleak … the backdrop for a homicide, here is the adjacent 1 Civic Center Plaza. Perhaps Chernobyl is more soulless, then again … perhaps not.

Today, there are more and more machines, these do not pay anything. Instead these machines must be subsidized by robbing from savers, retirees, workers and business customers. Meanwhile, the world’s economies are burdened by hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of non-repayable debt … taken on to build and run the machines.

Without credit, there is no industry. Meanwhile, our precious fleet of machines strip-mines the world of credit along with resources. This stripping process is underway right now in Europe and elsewhere … coming soon to your town! (It’s already happened if you live in Detroit.)

The underlying cause is centuries’ long destruction of resource capital. The consequence is diminishing resource throughput, diminished capital with a large and increasing scarcity premium attached to it. There is simply no more (of the same) capital to waste affordably. What capital remains is too valuable: the cost of retiring debts is greater than the worth of debts themselves. Whether the managers admit it or not, the markets right now are pricing the true costs of waste beyond the reach of today’s wasters … also tomorrow’s.

Because ‘more of the same waste’ is a physical process, it doesn’t matter who manages it, Austrian or Marxist, neo-Liberal or Friedmanite, salt-water or fresh-water. All of them will fail. Regardless of who is in charge there will always be less.

Don’t let the common sense baffle you! It’s not that hard to figure out. If prosperity = waste, nobody can promise prosperity any longer.

The ONLY solution is stringent energy- and resource conservation. There is no other solution, only evasions: to do nothing or to attempt more of the same waste means conservation will occur ‘by other means’. See ‘Cyprus’ as the latest example.

100 thoughts on “More of the Same …

  1. The Dork of Cork.

    As you may have guess Steve , I disagree with you about the Nuclear thingy.

    The Guild navigators have worked certainly since the end of Breton Woods to create a system of local scarcity to free up resources for further globalization all in the narrow interests of wage arbitrage.

    There was a funny little thingy (in my opinion) on the Yves site about Nuclear

    (the biggest cost to nuclear is the labour to run the show , now uranium and stuff)

    But lets just forget about Nuclear for a second.

    Lets think of another static like energy source – KING COAL.

    The first model for the neo liberal period was its source.
    The UK.
    Refer to the latest March UK energy trends publication.

    The UK imported zero coal until 1970.
    It did not run out of coal.
    It decided to destroy this primary industry.

    Ask yourself why ?

    1. steve from virginia Post author

      Industry cannot pay for itself regardless of what kind of industry it is.

      The energy producers cannot be taken out of context: they don’t exist unless there are consumers … with funds in hand. If credit is unavailable, there are no energy (rather power) consumers whether the source is solar, hydro, gas … whatever.

      The consumption side is the problem, because there is no return on it.

      1. The Dork of Cork.

        We are where we are.

        We cannot go back to a agrarian society given the population density.
        Sure , nuclear was /is subsidized.
        All complex society is……..as society becomes more complex as the energy density increases.

        What level of subsidy would you suggest ?

        Zero ?
        What then…………….

        Will we go back to pre Tudor times ?

        Even Richard the III tried to raise the level of northern England above a certain level.
        (which is probably why he got such a hard time from the Tudor propagandists who wanted all the wealth to flow south)

        You refuse to deal with the deep problem of finance capitalism ……….its ability and willingness to bypass local labour so as to steal the present surplus.

        This passing surplus is then spent on consumption rather then on long term capital.

      2. The Dork of Cork.

        PS
        Nuclear seems a failure because it creates a glut of energy………
        It is no accident that nuclear build stopped in France when the system became a limited liability company on the road to full privatization as private utility companies can only make money from scarcity.

        Sure the Rochchilds made a shit load of money out of it but somebody had to get the surplus from inside government as the surplus was created by government.

        Germany energy self suff.
        Total energy self suff.
        Y1960 : 0.8810
        Y1980 : 0.5197
        Y2000 : 0.4012
        Y2010e : 0.3897

        French energy self suff.
        Contrast this with the French experience…..in particular during the major Nuke build of the 80s…..

        Total self suff

        Y1960 :0.5718
        Y1980 :0.2743
        Y1990 :0.4997
        Y2000 :0.5193
        Y2010e : 0.5139

        Why can France engage in major rail projects while Germany cannot.
        It has surplus energy from the 80s
        Surplus energy gives you options.

        You can then make a stab at holding things together.

      3. steve from virginia Post author

        @ Cork:

        “We cannot go back to a agrarian society given the population density. Sure, nuclear was /is subsidized. All complex society is … as society becomes more complex as the energy density increases.

        What level of subsidy would you suggest?

        Zero?

        Will we go back to pre-Tudor times?”

        I suspect we (‘We’) are going to become (semi)agrarian whether we want to or not. Right now the management strategies aren’t pointing in any other direction. There is too much subsidy for non-productive enterprise … agrarian has the advantage of being (somewhat) productive.

        “You refuse to deal with the deep problem of finance capitalism … its ability and willingness to bypass local labour so as to steal the present surplus. This passing surplus is then spent on consumption rather then on long term capital.”

        I can’t do everything, I don’t want to, either.

        🙂

  2. Ed

    This was a good essay, but it was hard for me to follow and I am a regular visitor to the site and familiar with the thinking. I can’t imagine how someone stumbling onto the site the first time would react. It think you should spell things out more.

    I am 43 years old, and have been following the news for the past quarter century. I am trying to think of what was innovative in public policy during that time and can’t come up with much. Here is a list of major policy innovations or changes since the late 1980s, or things that were considered to be problems then that were solved:

    1) One big change pertinent to the topics on this site was the legalization of what was then considered to be financial fraud, either by legislation (late 1990s) or executive fiat (late 00s).

    2) Also, the US now openly wages wars of aggression without pretext. During the late Cold War, US forces were actually used less and when they were, the reasons given were more plausible.

    3) US news media has become more openly propagandistic, you can tell by comparing a 1970s or early 1980s TV broadcast or new magazine with the same product from the 1990s or later. Some people have linked this to changes in media ownership rules that went through around 1992.

    4) The average middle class white American is much more likely to have some sort of negative run in with security forces or petty officialdom, if only at the airports.

    5) Violent inner city crime was a big deal in the late 1980s but was solved. There have been days in New York City when there were no murders. And white middle class people moved back downtown from the suburbs, though it turned out that this meant that suburban culture spread to the cities, instead of the ex-suburbanites becoming more urban.

    6) I wasn’t going to count gay marriage because it seems to much like the manufactured culture war controversies that were still ongoing in the late 1980s, for example the flag burning amendment. But I think there is genuinely less chauvinism/ bigotry. I attribute this mainly to the pre-civil rights era generations fading out of the picture as they die.

    7) People were worried about the competitive challenge to US industry from Japan, but if that was “solved” was solved during the 1980s, by the 1986 Plaza Accord. You might as well credit the next two decades with the fall of the Berlin Wall as well. Plus the problem of declining US industry seems to have been “solved” by removal of all US industry, except for a few defense manufacturers from the US. And incidentally, CAFTA dates from 1988 and was controversial then so I don’t credit the 1990s or 00s with globalization either.

    8) I also don’t give the 1990s and 00s credit for any progress on the environment. In the late 1980s people were seriously discussing global warming, and what progress was made on that front was made in the early 1980s or 1990s. CFCs were banned in 1988 or thereabouts. SInce then stagnation.

    9) Political reform in the US was also a hot topic 1990-94. Term limits were enacted in many places and then quietly repealed. Campaign finance reform got passed in 2001, struck down by the Supreme Court, and might as well have never happened. The overall picture here is stagnation or things getting worse. However, you do have progress in legislative district boundaries in the US being drawn by independent commissions instead of the politicians, though that only brings the US up to the level of every other country in the world that has elections. Also partial credit for the increased party discipline, which is a good thing since it makes it easier for ordinary people to follow the game in the national and state capitols.

    10) There has been progress in reversing the subsidized crapiness of the American diet that was put in place in the 1980s and 1990s, but it seems to have come despite the government. You can get people to eat bad food for only so long.

    If someone had believably told my 18 year self what would transpire in terms of public policy during the next twenty-five years, I would have been suicidal!

    1. The Dork of Cork.

      Problem is Ken – the people of Dublin live more efficient lives then the people of the midlands.
      On the other hand Dublin people will never ever net produce.

      Currently the people of the midlands are not net producing either as they live industrial lives.
      Their only real output is Agri based with also peat extraction / burn from the Bog of Allen.

      For the people of the midlands to net produce their population must either decline ., they must give up their cars , their oil central heating , the current food & goods supply chain……….
      But it is possible………
      In Dublin this is never a possibility.

      A reactor in the midlands is the only solution in my opinion.
      The windmills planned in the midlands to supply the British grid will not work.
      Its a ancient Don Quixote technology deployed to service power densities with much higher orders of magnitude.

      Looking at the current trajectory – radiation is not likely to kill me , I am not worried.
      I am more concerned about living a short brutish life.

  3. George Hart

    Terrific post. Very clear. I don’t know of another writer who looks on the economy in such an unflinching way.

    Economic activity, as you describe it, increases terrestrial entropy around us. Whereas a biosphere converts solar entropy to a kind of order, to natural capital and energy, current human economic activity, in your accurate portrayal, is a biophage; it eats life (past and present) and undermines the basis of life. It’s a kind of macro parasitism.

    I think Lewis Mumford approached these issues too, in his way. And the editors of the Monthly Review, writers of Mumford’s generation, at times portrayed capitalism as a fable, where skyscrapers hummed all day with business, and at night the garbage trucks carted away the product. I suspect the economist Scott Nearing saw things similarly.

    Your essays are so clear, and call to mind some of the sharpest criticism of the past 50 years or more.

    Further back, someone like Fitzgerald tried to find words for it–

    “They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

    As you point out, there’ll be no one to clean up the mess.

    Thanks for all the terrific blog posts.

  4. Reverse Engineer

    “We are where we are.

    We cannot go back to a agrarian society given the population density.”
    eer
    The population density will shrink rapidly as various energy conduits fail. Even building more Nukes would not solve that problem because the distribution network is decaying. The costs to maintain the whole structure are simply too great, and as Steve indicates if there was REAL profit in it, there would be no DEBT.

    Old style Agrarian Architecture will not work,it is as rapacious and consumptive as the Oil Paradigm is. Your economics has to be pay as you go based on Energy Input. It’s possible, but not at current population levels in all likelihood. So many will Die. That is Baked in the Cake now.

    RE
    http://doomsteaddiner.org

    1. MarkU

      Re: “Old style Agrarian Architecture will not work,it is as rapacious and consumptive as the Oil Paradigm is.”

      I am not sure that I can agree with that, mainly because I have no idea specifically what you mean by “old style agrarian architecture”. Please bear in mind that the US is not the whole world and that many ‘old styles’ of agrarian practice have existed through the ages and that many of them have been more or less sustainable.

      1. Ellen Anderson

        Right – refer to ‘Forty Centuries of Farmers’ by King. Early 20th century book still available at Amazon.

      2. enicar666@gmail.com

        It’s definitely an old book! Interesting.

        The Singer sewing machine, manufactured in New Jersey, was seen in many Chinese shops in Hongkong and other cities, operated by Chinese men and women, purchased, freight prepaid, at two-thirds the retail price in the United States. Such are the indications of profit to manufacturers on the home sale of home-made goods while at the same
        time reaping good returns from a large trade in heathen lands, after paying the freight.

      3. Reverse Engineer

        Agriculture now consumes over 40% of the earth surface. In 1700, the figure was 7%. With Ag comes decreasing biodiversity, species and habitat destruction and increased water demand.

        There are conservative horticultural methods, but they don’t represent traditional Ag practices.

        From National Geographic:

        “Food production takes up almost half of the planet’s land surface and threatens to consume the fertile land that still remains, scientists warn.

        The global impact of farming on the environment is revealed in new maps, which show that 40 percent of the Earth’s land is now given over to agriculture.

        University of Wisconsin-Madison scientists compiled the maps using satellite images and crop and livestock production data from countries around the world. The team presented their picture of global land use this week at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

        “The satellite data tells us where cultivation is occurring with good spatial accuracy, while the census data is able to tell us what is being grown there,” said Navin Ramankutty, a land-use researcher with Wisconsin-Madison’s Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE).

        The maps suggest that an area roughly the size of South America is used for crop production, while even more land—7.9 to 8.9 billion acres (3.2 to 3.6 billion hectares)—is being used to raise livestock.

        And with the world’s population growing rapidly, the pressure is on farmers to find new land to cultivate, the study team says.

        “How can we continue to produce food from the land while preventing negative environmental consequences, such as deforestation, water pollution, and soil erosion?” Ramankutty said.

        Past Picture

        The researchers also used past land-use data to create maps showing how agriculture has spread over the centuries. In 1700, for example, just 7 percent of the world’s land was used for farming.

        Figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations suggest that total farmland increased by 12.4 million acres (5 million hectares) annually between 1992 and 2002.

        The SAGE scientists identified specific crops that help account for this growth.

        In Brazil, for example, huge areas of rain forest have been replaced by soybeans, which aren’t a traditional crop in South America. Production has been fueled by demand for soy from China. ”

        http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/12/1209_051209_crops_map.html

        RE

    1. steve from virginia Post author

      Hmmm … I’m trying to recall what medications I was taking that day … (ponder). The entirety would be a decent article or at least part of one.

      I get bombed over @ Nekkid Capitalism, too. The more people call me a fool the more I consider I’m on the right track.

  5. Ellen Anderson

    Amazing post, Steve. The race to hoover up all remaining resources is in full swing. But hoarding real stuff and holding onto it will prove harder than anyone can imagine. Once you really understand what is happening it is hard to hope for a speedy resolution. Have you a plan?

    1. steve from virginia Post author

      Once people start being concerned about their ‘real stuff’ (or claims on real stuff) the economy itself changes form, the incentive to hoard becomes self-amplifying. The hoovering process then installs its own set of rules, one of which is money becomes a proxy for resources rather than a proxy for the burning of resources.

      Because the managers do not consider resources to be anything other than cheaply disposable ‘inputs’ they are close to blundering into the money-proxy-for-resources condition. When that occurs = stake through the waste-based economy’s heart.

      My plan: is fairly general, not specific right now … because it is hard to tell what I am supposed to be doing! The destiny- or ‘fate’ alarm hasn’t gone off yet … maybe tomorrow!

      The real problems are out of reach of ordinary persons, the managers refuse to discuss the real problems. There are few places to hide … so approaches have to be micro/granular in nature.

      One component is to try to influence people and make a difference … see Christian Gustafson’s Zero-Hedge link below. ‘We the People’ are a tough group to influence.

      Another component is to simplify … no debt, no car, no teevee, less and less ‘junk’. I’ve been a vegetarian for a long time (+30 years), less ‘entertainment’, I don’t play golf, etc.

      I’m looking to move out of ‘here’ (Northern Virginia) and find another, cheaper place with ‘something happening’. I’m in the middle of the US National Security complex. Original thinking is prohibited. I might go to Detroit or New England. It’s all a balance of cost, possibilities, need for a car, etc. Most places in the US are super-expensive and a car is necessary.

      I guess I should write an updated the ‘strategies for living in the post-petroleum world’ article.

      1. Ellen Anderson

        That exchange on NC would make a great article. Those guys really have perfected the art of the ad hominem haven’t they? Do you ever hear from YS herself?
        Strategies for survival – if you can do without earning money somewhere other than home you can probably do without a car for the time being. People will bring you stuff for awhile until they themselves run out of cars and stuff. By then maybe the future will be clearer or you will be dead.
        NE and Michigan are pretty cold places if you have to walk a long way in the winter. If I were young I might go to Detroit. (I went to school in Ann Arbor.) But now, if I were moving as a mature person, I might try the Champlain Valley in Vermont. Burlington if you like cities. I probably didn’t choose my farm site that wisely but I could do without a car a lot of the time provided I could get a truck to bring stuff (and an ambulance service just in case 🙂
        Trouble is, people are meant to live in communities with resources and functioning economies. Talking about survival with outside of that context might be a useless exercise but you have to try.
        I really like how people are flabbergasted when they actually figure out the implications of your analysis. Sustainable recovery indeed!

      2. steve from virginia Post author

        Yves Smith … whaled at me once or twice. She’s good with banking system crime, she doesn’t get Peak Oil.

        However … as far as I’m concerned if you aren’t at the Art Berman- Chris Nelder- Rune Likvern- Jean Lahererre level of understanding you aren’t a finance analyst. All this information is out in the world including material from BP, EIA, IEA, Petrobras, North Dakota Mines and Minerals, etc. there is no excuse for being uninformed.

      3. Jb

        “I guess I should write an updated the ‘strategies for living in the post-petroleum world’ article.”

        That would be most appreciated. Please include where you can move to escape the radiation from 437 nuclear power plants worldwide.

        http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/nuclear_statistics/worldstatistics

        BTW, how many (more) Fukushima’s would it take to irradiate the planet beyond survival anyway? Owl says (with a crunch) “Three!”

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6rHeD5x2tI&feature=player_embedded

        DoC said: “This ships turning circle is just too big…” Indeed; there is no going back. We will have to fumble our way forward trying and failing at various new modes of productivity, exchange and survival like humans have never experienced before. At 45, I too wish I had learned all of this sooner, or perhaps never at all.

      4. Ellen Anderson

        Nuclear plants = government’s largest unfunded liability. Out to infinity and beyond.
        If you want to get really bummed out you can read McPherson’s ‘Nature Bats Last.’ Basically he says that if we don’t get radical energy conservation (viz collapse) pretty soon the human race will be extinct by 2030.
        Call me a psychopath, but I like thinking about root causes and I am convinced that it all goes back to expending too much energy which, in turn, creates suffocating waste. The highest expression of that waste is carz.

      5. Ken Barrows

        I think Dr. McPherson thinks we’re already fooked as a species, even if radical conversation happened right now.

      6. steve from virginia Post author

        Dr. McPherson is certainly entitled to his opinion. To a large degree — from a PR standpoint — he’s on the right track. The ‘Brand X’ scientists keep their collars well buttoned-down, are very, very understated and oh-so technical.

        Someone needs to get out there and scare the horses with all of this. The message needs to be, “We change and change fast or we are all going to die! Here’s how! Insert pitch for newsletter that identifies ten hot stocks you need to own, to gain by the misery of others!” People can grasp that sort of thing … rather than dozens of obscure tables and rationalizations.

        I’ve had this dialog with peak oil/ASPO people. I don’t have much connection w/ climate people but I’ve met and spoken with many of the peak oilers. I’ve told them, “Yr message is too technical. It goes over most peoples’ heads. Once they see that first chart they tune out everything from that point on.”

        We’ll see what happens over the course of time … ideas take root at the fringes. I thought it was interesting to see Ivan Ilyich quoted in a comment … in that bastion of race-hatred and junior varsity National Socialism Zero Hedge.

        Meanwhile, the little countries are swept aside one after the other … into the Peak Oil dumpster.

      7. steve from virginia Post author

        Ellen, it’s like everything else in modernity … these things were never thought through. We reach the part where we get what we want then we stop thinking. The rest is supposed to take care of itself. Just about anything modern you can imagine hasn’t been given life-cycle analysis.

        Of course, if analysis was properly done, most of our endeavors would be considered follies and cancelled … the life-cycle analysis of life-cycle analysis itself would point up this fatal flaw of LCA … In order to succeed NOW, we would have had to invent sometime in the proto-industrial past, a kind of society that could only exist after an industrial bottleneck has occurred and industrial societies themselves are annihilated.

        As hard as it is to imagine a post-industrial future society NOW, imagine someone in the pre-industrial past imagining a post-industrial society … and doing so before there are industries and the associated industries’ costs! Then have that someone craft an actual functioning society that is able to manage industry … to avoid the industrial bottleneck and allow modest industrial benefits without the enormous costs.

        Getting through that bottleneck appears to be the ‘teaching moment’ our race must endure.

      8. Jb

        Totally agree; I think your spot on.

        I start to lose hope when I think about what the world becomes like in the years ahead if nuclear accidents around the world increase in number and severity due to lack of maintenance or even extreme weather events. We’ve transformed our energy inheritance into fixed infrastructure that can’t be moved or maintained if it’s irradiated (or under water). If 40% of the earth’s land surface (thanks RE) is now used for farming, then we can’t afford for these facilities to blow up. This is why above ground nuclear testing was banned in ’63:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Nuclear_Test_Ban_Treaty

        It seems to me the risk for catastrophe must be increasing every day that this ship stays on the same course. (queue Dr. McPherson)

  6. RobG

    To wrap my head around this, I look at it pre-automobile versus post-auto.

    Pre-auto, capital grew in the industrial age. The wast of autos did not exist. Folks got around on trolleys which we actual capital since the earned their way. Robber barrons consolidated wealth and capital in railroads and industry. And governments built major assets like dams.

    Post-auto, capital vanishes as the auto-centric waste-based participants became ever more numerous. Capital is misallocated to activities the vaporize it. Governments use assets as collateral for debt. What spending it does is to maintain the system and its management organization.

    So I guess the final paragraph looks fishy:

    “The ONLY solution is stringent energy- and resource conservation”

    Actually there is no solution if the economy is waste-based.

    So I’m thinking:
    “The only solution is stringent energy- and resource conservation while transitioning to sustainable equilibrium of civilization which requires the radical pruning of any industry that cannot pay for itself by evidence of capital conservation or growth”.

    At some point the Industrial age changed to negative growth in terms of capital. And at this point in time there a many claims to what remains. It will be hard to unwind it but I’m sure the 1% are already executing a plan.

  7. G.Meyers

    New York still has a lot of farms and towns closely situated to railways.Many towns are walkable and Gov.Cuomo hasnt okayed fracking yet.The Catskill area is beautiful and affordable.Duncan Crary (does a show with Jim Kunstler) thinks Troy New York….with its waterways and rail and proximity to farmland will rise out of its blight and be a viable city.The Northeast Organic Farming Association is working on restarting wheat production in the Upstate areas so that New York can feed itself without importing wheat from the Midwest.There are also some farms that are starting to use plow horses again.(Redhook NY).

    1. The Dork of Cork.

      G.Meyers
      Above a certain size cities cannot feed themselves from their local hinterland , financial games must be played.
      Amsterdam , London and New York……..
      Indeed anything above Cork city size is in that bracket in my opinion.

      I walk this footbridge everyday which leads to a urban riverside walk going the full length of the urban course except for the local cricket grounds.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kV9Nxrq47Y

      (notice the drinking on the go culture that has become popular again among the local jet setters as THEY CANNOT AFFORD THE PUB)

      People in Ireland are mostly bankrupt…….they depend on the reduced wages , the dole or 3% yield max on their savings for basic outgoings.

      The better merchant class 18th & 19th century town houses of the city are ripe for the picking.
      I see Germans and other core Europe “solvent” people looking at the houses of Sundays Well every day ……..thinking to themselves… why not ?

  8. tom jones

    “The ONLY solution is stringent energy- and resource conservation. ”

    “Since the fall, not merely of the hierarchic nature of society, but of almost all traditional forms, the consciously conservative man stands as it were in a vacuum. He stands alone in a world which, in its all opaque enslavement, boasts of being free, and, in all its crushing uniformity, boasts of being rich. It is screamed in his ears that humanity is continually developing upwards, that human nature, after developing for so and so many millions of years, has now undergone a decisive mutation, which will lead to its final victory over matter. The consciously conservative man stands alone amongst manifest drunks, is alone awake amongst sleep‑walkers who take their dreams for reality. From understanding and experience he knows that man, with all his passion for novelty, has remained fundamentally the same, for good or ill; the fundamental questions in human life have always remained the same; the answers to them have always been known, and, to the extent that they can be expressed in words, have been handed down from one generation to the next. The consciously conservative man is concerned with this inheritance.

    Since nearly all traditional forms in life are now destroyed, it is seldom vouchsafed to him to engage in a wholly useful and meaningful activity. But every loss spells gain: the disappearance of forms calls for a trial and a discernment; and the confusion in the surrounding world is a summons to turn, by-passing all accidents, to the essential.

    Titus Burckhardt, What is Conservatism?

    1. steve from virginia Post author

      Jacob Burchkhardt:

      “the state incurs debts for politics, war, and other higher causes and ‘progress’. . . . The assumption is that the future will honor this relationship in perpetuity. The state has learned from the merchants and industrialists how to exploit credit; it defies the nation ever to let it go into bankruptcy. Alongside all swindlers the state now stands there as swindler-in-chief.”

      By way of Michael Hudson …

  9. Pingback: More of the Same… | Doomstead Diner

    1. Reverse Engineer

      Just posted on the One by One Lights Out topic at the Energy Table inside the Diner

      http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/forum/index.php?topic=655.msg20122;topicseen#msg20122

      Snippet here:

      “Usually this thread is about the massive and sudden power outtages that come from Grid Failures, not this one though. This one is about the ongoing Economic Blackout occurring in Greece at the astounding rate of 30K customers/mo.

      When you consider a “customer” is usually a family and sometimes a whole apartment complex, probably at least 100K people lose juice for the toaster every month. In a country with a population of 11.3M, at that rate they are all lights out in 9 years or so, though I doubt it takes that long because pretty soon the Greek Goobemint won’t be able to buy coal for the power plants, which probably are in worse condition than the one Roamer worked in.

      Is this Fast Collapse or Slow Catabolic Collapse? If your a Greek who can’t make toast this morning, it’s fast. If you are in Amerika where toast making may go on another 20 years, its slow. How you perceive the collapse all depends on where you are and when the shitstorm makes it to your neighborhood….”

      Visit the Diner to read the rest!

      RE

  10. Gaianne

    Steve–

    Thank you. A very good post.

    I have been lurking for a while, and certainly want to thank you for your series on Fukushima, just for example, which showed more understanding than most items on the internet at the time.

    Speaking of the net, it seems to me that the amount of information on the internet is absolutely dropping, even as the noise increases. I get a queasy feeling that this mode of media is quite temporary (perhaps a few more years before utility vanishes). This is on top of or in addition to the fact that I am learning less and less for the simple reason you highlight in this post: The shape of things has already been laid and until the next major step down (global plague, famine, war, whatever) what we have everywhere is more of the same.

    The paradox of surviving is the same paradox that did in all the sustainable peoples who were gobbled up by this civilization in years and centuries past: To resist destruction you need a level of force that only an unsustainable technology can provide. Or maybe you need to be very clever, as well as live in a place with no resources. This is hard to do, as resources turn up everywhere!

    Where I live (in New England) there is no oil- or gas- shale, which is our temporary good luck. But this will not keep (New York City, say) from stealing our water when they destroy their own water by fracking. This is typical of the kind of problems anyone who seeks an exit from the holocaust faces. Although again, our new climate will probably continue to be quite wet, and the ability to steal may decline along with civilization.

    Also, I live near the boundary of a future exclusion zone, though whether inside or outside the boundary will not be known until our local nuke plant finally melts and burns.

    I focus on the temporally local: Learning day-to-day how to get more of my life outside of the industrial system, including the money economy. I focus on the basics: Food, water, warmth, keeping dry, a network of helpful friends. If you manage those, your prospects improve. Naturally, it is all baby steps.

    I did not mention air. I have no plan: While oxygen declines and airborne toxins increase, these trends will be self-limiting. But on which side of survival will they reverse? I don’t know. Maybe someone has thoughts.

    –Gaianne

    1. Ellen Anderson

      Welcome to the comments section. Since you live in NE – happy spring. I think we have made it through another winter.
      I have been following this blog since at least 2010 (got hooked by “Betty Davis Eyes.”) Here’s my take: first try to get clear on what the most important problems are and then see whether there is anything at all that you can do about any of them now. Mostly you can only take effective action locally. Today I am going through my town collecting soils samples to be sent to Logan Labs and UMass. I am getting as many farmers and gardeners as possible. We will get together to procure amendments and later we will test our veggies for nutritional value. Another Steve – Steve Solomon – has a Yahoo user group that helps people interpret their results. (We will see how well U Mass stacks up to Logan Labs as they should be the ones helping us.) You know, NE soils are not any better than they were in 1815 when everyone started heading out for the better soils in the midwest. I am working through my local Grange. Trying to have fun while we learn. The problem with a lot of “solutions” to the crisis is that no one has fun. We try to sing and eat and not to focus on the doom. In fact, most of the people I know do not want to hear about any of this stuff but most people love to play in the dirt.
      The nuclear waste issue drives me nuts. Mostly I just try to be supportive of the people who are trying to get the word out. I think we need to close them and get the waste into dry cask storage. Or, we could take Nevada by eminent domain and send it all there:)
      Right now there is a candidate for the US senate who is pretty good on the nuclear issue. So, though I usually don’t participate in mainstream political campaigns I am making phone calls for him (ugh I hate doing that)
      Anyway, I am an activist from way back and I have always had to pick my battles carefully or go nuts. The serenity prayer helps….
      OK off with the soils probe.

      1. Gaianne

        New England soils vary, and yes, they are generally not very good. But organic gardening works, and that is what I have been learning and doing. There are still plenty of leaves for making compost (although as the trees sicken, that will change). There are other sources of nutrients as well (though most people won’t learn them).

        I don’t believe in solutions–there aren’t any. I do believe in coping. There is no point in funking it early–we will learn plenty soon enough if what we are doing matters. No rush at all, really!

        Dry cask storage is only obvious: At least it won’t spontaneously meltdown and burn, even if you can’t find a geologically secure burial site. The fact that the Powers that Be–and the power companies and the NRC are not lifting a finger–bodes very, very badly. I assume those guys are expecting to move to the exciting and upcoming new continent of Antarctica and start growing cotton and sugarcane in our happy new climate! ; )

        –Gaianne

  11. iguanaisland

    A new novel called Juliet is the Sun makes a radical claim that Shakespeare saw what was coming—-400 years ago!!

    If Shakespeare was worried about this issue, then perhaps we can imagine that it is a very fundamental issue for us. And his works may help us to understand the problem.

    I am an academic working on this. And yes, I did (under a pseudonym) write Juliet is the Sun. In its academic form, it is an idea rejected by all major journals in the west, but accepted by an academic journal in Japan.

  12. G.Meyers

    Dork of Cork….I remember seeing movies where some British flats were fitted with gas heaters that were pay as you go…pop in a coin and get the rising damp out.I dont know if Ireland had them as well but I have thought that would certainly lead to some conservation.Those small 2up/2downs with the large back garden for raising veg and some chickens….seemed quite cosy and doable if located in a small town.The place you picked for Steve is all anyone would need with a composting toilet of course!

    1. The Dork of Cork.

      G.Meyers
      Sure , Yes
      Back in the 80s we put 50p coins into the gas (for cooking) and used a solid fuel back boiler for heating the entire house.
      Not much insulation back then but…….it was a spartan existence but we had enough money for a social life.

      This Irish American moved to a working class area of Cork in the 80s or early 90s.
      It was a culture shock I imagine.

      The Immersion sketch.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52bna-tn_dY

      PS the area seen above has mainly houses from the Napoleonic boom era (the road bridge in this area is called Wellington bridge) , it was the first of the upper class burbs but given that it was before the era of the Tram everything was close at hand.
      However now the local corner store is closed with the post office , tea /coffoe shop , Butcher and pubs in serious trouble.

      No need for this area to suffer in a better monetary environment , houses in this area are a buy if we leave the Euro.

      1. Jb

        Steve,

        Here are three titles to get the ball rolling:

        ‘Seed Sowing and Saving’ by Carole B. Turner, Storey Publishing 1998

        ‘Wood Heat’ by John Vivian, Rodale Press 1976

        ‘Root Cellaring’ by Mike and Nancy Bubel, Rodale Press 1979

        Feel free to save the titles for later and delete the post. Thanks – Jb

      2. Reverse Engineer

        I suggest making a database table for such lists, then linking it to the Blog from the homepage. You could leave it open so anyone could add to it. I think also WP has a Plug-In for a database table if you want to keep it all onsite.

        Housed in a post, it won’t be searchable by Category, Author, Publication Date etc.

        RE

      3. steve from virginia Post author

        Right now I’m trying to find a gadget that would put a simple list on the side of the front page.

        Of course, that is like finding an honest man in the WordPress lexicon of software add-ons. Most library gadgets are advertising modules for Amazon.

        I might just do a periodic post or … something. I just don’t have the time or computer smarts to ‘invent’ a sidebar gadget that doesn’t link to Amazon …

        Meanwhile, there is a place for both paper books and e-books. Paper books are a sign of seriousness as a publisher has made the investment necessary to bring the book into being. Sadly, the quality of all writing and all arts in general is deteriorating, this is the endgame of modernity as well as its associated ‘culture’. The same thing happened during the Roman transition to Trinitarianism: knowledge and scholarship was centralized within the church monopoly and replaced by doctrine. To escape the death-grip the church had on information and learning, it took over a thousand years and the invention of movable type and a useful printing press. Now the computer pulls content back toward the center leaving only low entertainment and doctrine.

        People still read books however, they are nice objects, they are likely never to disappear …

        A problem with the e-books can be found in James Tobin’s complaint in the NY Times: the e-books are putting writers out of business. The Internet ‘revolution’ is a form of cannibalization. Like the sidebar gadget that is too complex and obscure to easily invent, content provision is difficult. Indeed, aping or ripping off content and centralizing it thereby is like rolling a log.

        I like paper books but they are becoming harder for me to read due to poor eyesight. They also take up a lot of space, require shelves, etc. I assume that all the best books are written in languages I don’t understand and that translations are inept. I already have too much content to digest now … there is much I am afraid I will never be able to get to.

        More on this later …

    1. Reverse Engineer

      While I love the Paper Version most, there is a lot to be said for ebooks on price & portability. For $40 for a month of UNLIMITED DOWNLOADS from Books Great Choice, in one month I D/L over 1000 ebooks and about 100 Audio Books. Complete Works of Shakespeare, Gibbon’s Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire, Permaculture Manuals, Pharmacology, you name it, I got it. 🙂 I got them all squished onto a MicroSD card the size of my Fingernail, and duplicated on a few other drives as well in case one craps out.

      I keep the card in the slot on my Samsung 7″ Galaxy Tablet which fits in the breast pocket of my jacket. Never a shortage of reading material when out in the Bush. I keep the Galaxy charged with a small 5W solar PV panel that fits in a backpack.

      Eventually of course if I live long enough I won’t be able to find a woking computer to read all of the stuff, but I’m pretty sure I’m good for a decade or two just with my computers and spare parts. Barring an EMP of course.

      BTW CFFP, I’ll cross post this one on the Diner.

      RE

      1. Reverse Engineer

        No reason you can’t do BOTH CG. Why not have Gibbon BOTH in Hard Copy AND on your MicroSD card?

        Thing is, all the “Great Works” are CHEAP beyond belief digital. I mean good grief I’ve got everything written not just by Shakespeare, but by Homer, Thucydides, Machiavelli, Locke, Hume…$1000+ Surgical Manuals and Medical Texts often in compiled Help fomats all hyperlinked…yadda yadda for $40!!!! LOL.

        You’ll never be able to afford all that in hard copy, even if you can find it on the cheap at a yard sale at $1/book. Not to mention where do you store all those books, and what do you do if you have to MOVE? Acccckkkk. I kept all my college textbooks, they are in boxes in a storage unit in MO. I live in ALASKA. It would cost a fortune to ship them up here. I can carry MORE (much) in my breast pocket on the airplane in my Tablet.

        Besides, I could always Print them all out if I wanna buy lotsa Paper and Ink. Bind them myself in nice Caribou Skin covers. LOL.

        RE

      2. christiangustafson

        Yes but.

        I have the 5th edition of the works of John Locke, printed in 1751.

        It’s older than our country. It was owned by a Duke. Of course, I found it up in Evanston, in the Illinois territory.

        The huge pages are this thick, eternal paper, so perfect, so crisp and rich, and the type has these funny lispy characters for ‘s’ …

        Hold it, behold it, and you’ll never go back. Some of us are hooked on the book experience.

        I have a numbered 1910 edition of The Will to Power. In the publishing process, the octavo was not cut cleanly, and the tops of the pages were still attached to each other. So I took a razor blade to the works, painstakingly cutting each page, while I then read them. It had never been read — it was like opening a tomb.

        Books, especially the rare ones, are worth every penny.

      3. Reverse Engineer

        I like a good Old Book as much as the next Nostalgia Victim, just like I like the lovely Architecture of those Detroit Mansions Steve is so fond of using for Illustration.

        Fact is of course, those lovely Mansions ain’t coming back, and it is entirely impractical for me to have a large paper book collection in a small cabin in Alaska.

        The information contained in those books is what is most important to me, and long as I can keep my computers running off some power source, I’ll have access to it.

        Anyhow, like I said, have your cake and eat it to. It only costs $40 to D/L more than you will ever be able to read in a lifetime. Buy the old books too if it suits you and drop them on your bookshelves.

        Nothing physical lasts forever though. Remember the bookshelves in the Library in Zardoz? Only memories and stories remain. Memorize what you can, write songs and poetry, sing them and tell them to your children, so they may pass them in turn on to their sons & daughters.

        RE

      4. steve from virginia Post author

        EMP is very unlikely, but for those who care, consider the Faraday cage. It should be the next Boomer ‘must have’.

      5. Reverse Engineer

        I don’t consider an EMP all that likely either, and if a really BIG ONE occurs I doubt it much matters if I have some Info sequestered in a Faraday Cage. Nevertheless, I do keep one laptop shielded this way. 🙂 A little chicken wire, EZ to make.

        RE

      6. tom jones

        thought of you(conduits) and steve (cars) when reading this comment on Mish’s blog….
        jadecahesis writes:
        “What is happening is not elimination of the PC. Quite the opposite. Companies like Google that operate huge data centers spend insane amounts of money on hardware and maintenance. Supplying tech giants is like working for the government (much easier than chasing small fish).

        Even though consumers are shifting away from de-centalized processing, the need for computational power and storage is growing.

        A cell phone and a tablet become remote access terminals and instead of owning the hardware, you pay a monthly fee for access. It’s a better business model for the suppliers of service. It keeps people hooked on the products and the eco-system on which they rely. Apple knows that. They’re not complaining, and let me tell you, they don’t host their iTunes on sandwitched together tablets and phones. They use old fashion computers and mainframes.

        PC’s don’t matter any less than they used to. Consumers are less interested in doing the work themselves and investing into depreciating assets. Tech giants now do it on their behalf.

        I see no crisis and a balanced shift from PC’s sitting at home, to PC’s sitting in giant water-cooled hangers with backup generators out the back.
        7 Hours Ago
        · Reply
        jadecahesis
        Speaking of tablets, Apple was one to truly seize the moment with tablets and touch-phones. Many tried before them and failed, because neither the technology nor the consumer were ready. Computers had to be fast and smart enough to deal with the lazy passive consumer.

        The tablet itself presents a philosophical shift in data interaction behavior. What is it? It’s a screen with no mouse and keyboard. It’s an output device with no dedicated input device – only a function that allows for some limited interaction.

        Before, to operate a computer, one had to be smart – one had to know what to do, to be equal to the machine. One had to produce data to receive data. It was all about data input.

        Today’s computers resemble televisions more than anything else and users act like remote control thumb-twitchers. They point a finger and consume. Point and consume.

        Tablets are made for the level of human-machine interaction that only became possible in the last decade. Before, the user had to think for himself. Now companies like Google and Apple think for him. I think that if you are a tech giant, it’s good for business rather than bad. It breeds service addicts – people willing to sink a lot of money on something that’s not going to make money back.

        Digital consumerism.”

        Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/jim-chanos-daily-ticker-stay-away-from.html#BkHZVxxXfICxy8mT.99

  13. Mirabilis2000

    One for you Dork of Cork:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-04/europe-to-shut-10-refineries-as-profits-tumble.html

    “Oil refiners in Europe will shut 10 percent of their plants this decade as fuel demand falls to a 19-year low.

    Of the region’s 104 facilities, 10 will shut permanently by 2020 from France to Italy to the Czech Republic, a Bloomberg survey of six European refinery executives showed. Oil consumption is headed for a fifth year of declines to the lowest level since 1994, the International Energy Agency estimates. Two-thirds of European refineries lost money in 2011, according to Essar Energy Plc (ESSR), owner of the U.K.’s second-largest plant. “

  14. The Dork of Cork.

    @Mirabillis
    Sure ,
    Down down down………..
    But it seems we have also lost the IEA oil market report oil charts also…
    Blank blank blank.

    PS
    Medium scale planning or anti planning is so important to this breakdown.

    A walk along Cork cities River Lee

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSfHApSrTp4

    The straight road seen at 0.06 is known in the city as the “Straight Road” LOLLL as once upon a time it was the only Roman like road in the village.
    It was in fact a railway line long long ago ………infact the train was so slow there was a sign telling passengers “no picking blackberries while the train is moving”

    The Victorian Monstrosity seen across the river at 0.28 was /is the longest building in Ireland.
    It was infact the local madhouse where half the population resided……
    In the final days of the boom some parts were converted into apartments with little success as the place is dark and spooky.

    The white building seen at 0.53 is a hotel which replaced a fantastic open air swimming pool (a victim of health and safety fascists)
    In 2009 the Hotel was badly flooded…………….
    Sweet Justice ?

    Wellington bridge is seen at 1.06

    the waterworks is seen at 1.15
    (the large redbrick building above the waterworks was also a mental asylum – I guess they ran out of space)

    The local university sports grounds at 2.52

    The shaky bridge pedestrian bridge giving access to Sundays Well at 3.09.

    Fitzgerald’s Park at 3.30

    The University itself and the finally back to local admin “skyscraper” with 2 locals looking up

    In my experience only Edinburghs New Town area (its old) and its Arthur Seats /Holyroad park beats it for urban pedestrian access in a medium sized British city.
    But Cork is so much cheaper then Edinburgh now.

    A part of me thinks this is a artificial crisis so as to steal all the best bits remaining.

  15. The Dork of Cork.

    The population of old Cork city has declined slightly (despite the production of new apartments) while the burbs population exploded……

    Why now ?
    Given we have a energy crisis ?

    Its a monetary / physical world interaction problem.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvMuKhD418U

    No critical mass can be achieved on such a broad suburban canvas.

    1. christiangustafson

      The cable-cars are really just for show. SF has several layers of rail — BART regional rail, MUNI light rail, and electric streetcars, plus a network of buses.

      Or you can walk walk walk. Always a pleasure there.

      1. The Dork of Cork.

        @Christ
        I was thinking more along the lines of inner inner city transport in hilly areas and how to make it accessible.
        Ski lift like machines would be suitable on Patricks Hill so as to make the center of town (which is directly at the bottom of that hill) available for any old people living in the area and for American tourists who I often see struggling up our Hills

        As for longer distance Greenways the English Hobbits are the best at that sort of thing.
        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-22051086

    1. Ellen Anderson

      If Markey wins I am hoping he makes dry casking of waste his top priority. Whenever anyone asks me to make calls or donations I tell them that this is why I am willing to work and help.
      Who manages the clean-up funds? If they are in the stock market they must be stuffed full of profits. Right?

  16. Warren Celli

    Interesting post, regarding this;

    “‘Sustainable’ is gross abuse of the language. In order to ‘have’ our desired industrial goodies we must borrow. Our machines do not pay their own way. If they did there would be no debts as deploying machines would retire them. That they do not do so is self-evident. With thousands of millions of machines there is an exponential increase in debt required to assemble them and provide them with fuel. This is debt that even the entire world’s bloated finance establishment cannot provide.”

    “Machines” are in reality “Deceptive Externalized Tools Of Dominance” (DETODS). They pay their own way and provide for the needs of some, those who produce the most deceptive tools of dominance, and that is why we are all driven to produce them.

    http://www.boxthefox.com/deceptionology/4superiorexternalizations.html

    What is important to notice is that the “thousands of millions of machines” (again read DETODS here), are combining in their totality and morphing into the next iteration of humanity — the Onotron. What ever you create, for yourself or others, controls you in some fashion. The process of the sub-sumption of humanity into the Onotron IS unsustainable for humans but will move the Onotron down the evolutionary trail. The morality of the constituent machines combines to form the morality of the Onotron. It does not look good.

    http://www.boxthefox.com/deceptionology/8onotron.html

    The present upper echelon “management strategies”, deceptively concealed in planning as usual, but becoming more evident every day, are for a global herd thinning of the middle and under classes and creating a two tier system of ruler and ruled with the ruled in perpetual conflict with each other. This will be overseen by a more efficient robotic techno-cop police force. Yes the good old days are gone.

    It is the narcissistic Jivey League School crowd, like Yves and Alford, that provides the good cop bad cop cover for the Xtrevilist aberrant psychopaths that run the scam global show. They do so by keeping the totally corrupt system alive with their attention. How many times must one bang one’s head against the wall…?

    http://www.boxthefox.com/articles/premiere%20article.html

    Deception is the strongest political force on the planet.

  17. The Dork of Cork.

    Enough to make a decent Corkman weep.

    The lower harbour Burb mess continues…………

    “City councillors have also expressed serious concerns the plan does not address the serious traffic issues already blighting the area.

    City planners have insisted Mahon can take this level of development as long as there is investment in a high-quality bus-based public transport service; that the potential for non-car trips is maximised; and a more sustainable compact pattern of development is achieved to allow people to live and work in the area”

    “City planners”
    Now there is a oxymoron if ever there was one.

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/archives/2013/0410/world/plan-to-develop-retail-hub-despite-traffic-problems-227857.html

    The old city has lost critical shopping mass because of Mahon shopping center in particular and yet they want MORE JUNK.

    Mahon is home to one of Ireland’s largest shopping centres………………………….

  18. The Dork of Cork.

    A airport which has seen a almost total collapse in passenger numbers.

    “Since 2007 there has been a significant reduction in passenger traffic with just under 1.1 million passengers passing through the airport in 2012, down from a peak of more than 2.4 million in 2007”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Prestwick_Airport

    I imagine this is mainly a result of the Irish collapse and competition from the west coast mainline which has its terminus in Glasgow central.

  19. The Dork of Cork.

    A tiny railway station which has seen a 893% increase in passenger numbers in one year !
    Thanks to the community campaigning for timetable changes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doleham_railway_station

    Y2010/11 : 3,894
    Y2011/12 :38,666

    Dolehom consists of 10~ houses in a row and nothing else !
    Its hobbit land.

    Something really strange is happening in Southern England.

    Meanwhile Glasgow Preswick international airport railway station has seen a 22% drop in passenger numbers.
    From 432,334 to 336,982.

  20. The Dork of Cork.

    Constantin Gurdgiev Analysis of the Irish car market in the first 3 months of 2013 , and looking back all the way to the mid 1960s.

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/04/842013-new-vehicles-registrations-q1.html

    In this post he seems to not understand the huge stock and flow problem within the Irish economy.
    Anyhow the cars purchased during the boom year of 2000 will mostly retire soon……

    I will soon expect a big drop of total private Irish car regs on the road
    From 1.8 million +
    All the way back to 1990 at least – just 800,000.

  21. The Dork of Cork.

    The ORR railway station usage – fascinating

    http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/server/show/ConWebDoc.11135

    These transport patterns show whats really going on……a build up of spending power in the south.

    I believe the UK is eating up real goods and claims on the remaining wealth via Euro austerity.

    Example : Italians probably own a shitload of gold……..they run out of cash – where does it end up ?
    London & its shires me thinks.

  22. The Dork of Cork.

    JB
    Whenever you get a lull in solar activity such as now western Europe gets very cold and dry( by our standards) because of the east winds – we should be at max solar cycle at this stage (every 11 years) but the sun is only showing moderate activity.

    But western scotland is normally driest in the 3 months running up to the summer soltice anyway.
    Its been my experience (on average) that July and August are much wetter then the Spring up there.

    If Europe finds itself in a 100 year Maunder Minimum then we could be in a bit of further trouble with the awl gas central heating thingy.
    The lack of a good malt could be the least of our troubles,

    I prefer a cheap secret drink up there – its almost a generic bottle.
    Its called “As you get it”
    And no I am not joking.
    Its a full malt for the locals………….not sold abroad as it is the best of stuff but slightly cheaper then exports.
    It changes a bit but normally its 100 prof with 60 %~ alcohol.

  23. The Dork of Cork.

    A footbridge in Cork destroyed for a vehicle flyover which is now sadly nearly complete.
    I think they spent 60 million in total on this………..almost enough to rebuld the entire Youghal railway line.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50oHbQAG1fc

    In Ireland we have a fetish for excess capacity….. even after the biggest national banking crisis per capita in the world……ever.

  24. enicar666

    MOAR of the same!

    It’s a Time to Build! Journal-Sentinel Special Report.

    Oshkosh Corp.’s mass layoff could ripple across the Fox Valley

    But with the war in Afghanistan winding down, Oshkosh Corp. last week said it would lay off 900 workers this summer – about 25% of the company’s defense division work force – ending a four-year hiring spree and slowing what former Defense Secretary Robert Gates once said was one of the most impressive military-vehicle production runs in decades.

    Only two years ago, 2,500 people attended a two-day job fair for Oshkosh Corp., with some waiting more than nine hours to be interviewed for roughly 750 job openings.

    Including those who applied online and at other times, more than 5,000 people sought jobs as the specialty vehicle-maker added staff to fulfill a $3 billion defense contract.

    Meanwhile residents in Kenosha ask, Why not use Chrysler site for agriculture? In reference to the former AMC/Chrysler facility that was just torn down and is now a large expanse of concrete slab.

    Satellite view of the now missing Chrysler factory.

    Wisconsin is now accelerating in it’s descent into permanent decline and the fight to remain solvent and maintain the status quo will only intensify!

      1. enicar666

        I still didn’t get it right. If you enlarge the image you will see the former Complex bordered by Wood St. (West) and 52nd. St. (North). It’s now empty. Kenosha is starting to have more empty store fronts and businesses closing down.

        The Trailer Park I used to live in is quiet and many of the trailers and people are now gone. The trailers were abandoned by their former owners and the Park tore them down as they were in poor condition. Unemployment is up everywhere – along with crime. However Racine is preparing to spend millions of $$$ in an emergency budget amendment on the Harbor and Root River area – as the near record low level of Lake Michigan creates navigation problems for the Boaters! MOAR spending on the cheep boaters of Racine so they can float on overpriced pieces of floating plastic and burn fuel going in circles on Lake Michigan!

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