From the ‘Nicole Foss Sucks All The Air Out Of The Room’ department, fellow Canadian Rick Munroe, Energy Security Analyst for the National Farmer’s Union of Canada describes buttonholing agencies both in Canada and in the US to determine their level of preparedness. Observation: the militaries are discussing the issue of peak liquid fuels, the responsible civilian agencies are not. Very sobering …
John Michael Greer suggests that large scale immigration of Asians to the US (Canadian) west coast is likely as nations such as Japan have limited capability to feed themselves in a fuel constrained environment.
John Michael is a China bull! Knock me ovah with a fethah!
More on China, later.
Chris Martenson suggests that gold is a form of money that does not incur a liability in its creation. I would leave the reader to disagree, but feel compelled to note that mining and refining gold represents a liability generally paid for in other forms of money. Managing a surplus of it it represents a liability that increases … at a greater rate than the value of the surplus. In this sense, gold is no different from all other forms of money.
This is in fact true of all surpluses and is Steve’s First Law of Economics.
Jeff Rubin asks (rhetorically) what sub-prime mortgages – using Cleveland as an example – caused an economic meltdown worldwide? Good question! The answer is rising oil prices, of course. Jeff then gave a ‘Net Export’ sales pitch …
Jeff Rubin proves you can go far in economics if you have the right haircut.
Jeff Vail suggests that suburbia is worth saving. Saving for what? He makes the example of a suburban ‘farmer’ who feeds two people from a 1/6 acre lot. Question for Jeff: how many tons of food are now coming from suburbia? How many come from farms?
David Murphy gives a good description of the ‘Waste- Based Economy’. He notes that it only functions well with prices @ $35 a barrel.
Andre Angelantoni has probably the best cultural take: we all are engaged in long- running social conversations. Most of these are about how we organize ourselves. These tend to aggressively defend their content. They also promote strategies that are not re- examined once they are implemented! The upshot: the social conversations continually reinforces failure.
Nicole Foss did indeed suck all the air out of a very large room full of people who have a background in the material. Her best line had the world competing militarily for scarce energy; “is not going to be very pleasant!” … and everyone laughed. It’s not the material it’s how you deliver it.
Robert Hirsch didn’t go far enough with his presentation, hoping for a return to a semblance of business as usual. He suggests a context where breakdowns increase due to the finance disorders; then liquid fuels decline causing what would likely be even more breakdowns. Out of this cauldron of increasing societal failures would emerge ‘mitigations’ which would presumably be electric cars.
Please pass the fairy dust …
Meanwhile, out in the ‘Greater World’ a number of soft commodities ‘limit up’ yesterday. Other prices were up sharply. This is from Bloomberg, yesterday:
Agriculture
|
PRICE*
|
CHANGE
|
% CHANGE
|
TIME
|
|
|
CANOLA FUTR (WCE) (CAD/MT)
|
497.500
|
14.900
|
3.09
|
10/08
|
|
COCOA FUTURE (USD/MT)
|
2803.000
|
63.000
|
2.30
|
10/08
|
|
COCOA FUTURE – LI (GBP/MT)
|
1870.000
|
30.000
|
1.63
|
10/08
|
|
COFFEE ‘C’ FUTURE (USd/lb.)
|
182.150
|
8.700
|
5.02
|
10/08
|
|
CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.)
|
528.250
|
30.000
|
6.02
|
10/08
|
|
COTTON NO.2 FUTR (USd/lb.)
|
107.170
|
3.420
|
3.30
|
10/08
|
|
FCOJ-A FUTURE (USd/lb.)
|
153.750
|
2.550
|
1.69
|
10/08
|
|
LUMBER FUTURE ($/1,000 board ft.)
|
233.000
|
10.000
|
4.48
|
10/08
|
|
OAT FUTURE (USd/bu.)
|
369.500
|
20.000
|
5.72
|
10/08
|
|
ROUGH RICE (CBOT) (USD/cwt)
|
13.250
|
0.455
|
3.56
|
10/08
|
|
SOYBEAN FUTURE (USd/bu.)
|
1135.000
|
70.000
|
6.57
|
10/08
|
|
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR (USD/T.)
|
316.200
|
20.000
|
6.75
|
10/08
|
|
SOYBEAN OIL FUTR (USd/lb.)
|
46.620
|
2.500
|
5.67
|
10/08
|
|
SUGAR #11 (WORLD) (USd/lb.)
|
26.320
|
1.160
|
4.61
|
10/08
|
|
WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) (USd/bu.)
|
719.250
|
60.000
|
9.10
|
10/08
|
|
WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) (USd/bu.)
|
758.500
|
59.000
|
8.43
|
10/08
|
Look at wheat, corn and soybeans. Planet Bernanke gives the gift of food riots.
At the same time, all these markets look like they are blowing- off. Stocks on Thursday, for instance. I’m not going to run out and buy wheat or gold. Too ‘toppy’.
EDIT: Sharon Astyk is giving the crowd the willies by describing the non- linearities present in agriculture. The issue is whether there will be enough farmers, water or (obviously) fuel to allow us to be fed. The outlook is iffy, according to Sharon.
It is the farmers – Sharon and Rick Munroe – who ring the loudest alarm bell. Our food supply depends absolutely on available fuel at an affordable price. No farm profit has the same outcome as no business profit.
Here, bankruptcy equals catastrophe.
EDIT: First of all I must give heartfelt thanks to all my readers and supporters who give me a sense of responsibility and motivate me to do a better job and improve the quality of my content. Thanks to Lynn Harding, jb, Brian Hayes, Gregor MacDonald, Kurt Cobb, Nicole Foss, Andre Angelantoni, Gail Tverberg, Alex Ac, and the rest.
Second, it is becoming more clear how unprepared the entire country is for what is unfolding under our noses. It’s easy for me to sit back here and say, “learn something.”
What, exactly are we to learn? What is a bid disconcerting is listening to the peak oil experts coming up to the ends of their presentations and coming up short. What next? We all – all not necessarily being inclusive – want to be farmers … but don’t know how! The learning curve on this and all else is too steep for too short a time. There are no easy answers … there are few hard answers, either.
What is the most reassurance that anyone can give is that the finance universe has the greatest troubles and events will manifest themselves in finance, first. From now ’til then, find out what you yourselves like that others may like as well. I am firmly convinced that the key to success lies from now on not with ‘rugged’ or any other kind of individualism but within the firm hold of others. Keep others happy and you will be pleased to join them. It’s a better – and easier – skill than sewing on buttons.
steve