I try to keep an open mind about what is happening in the various markets. No idea is absolute, there are different approaches and some work some of the time, many fewer work all the time and the greatest majority never work except by wild chance – as a lightning strike.

I keep a number of sites that I watch so I can get a ‘feel’ for what’s happening. Mostly I go outside and walk around and watch. In the real world, two plus two always equals four and there are no Fed shenanigans that can reach down here and change that.

I suppose most of the people I follow are negative about the economy and the various markets. I don’t think anyone is negative about markets in general since they are ubiquitous and impossible to quash but people are very negative about what the establishment is trying to do with and to the markets. This is probably realistic sinice the marriage of finance and government isn’t really working very well and like a fractious couple – think Sid Vicious and Nancy Spungen – there is a lot of conflict that is taking place just out of sight, in the closet so to speak.

By nature I am a bear, I am a pessimist and I always think the worst of human nature, and I am very cynical. The only person I can recall who is more cynical was this New York Times stringer whose name I cannot recall. I suspect Dmitri Orlov is cynical as he is Russian and also spent time in post- USSR Russia when its economy collapsed. Cynicism and pessimism are good for humor, it is never funny to watch someone carefully walk around a banana peel.

I promised my brother that I wouldn’t make any more predictions because he was getting annoyed with them. Nevertheless, I think it’s wise for all market participants to keep a watch on energy, not so much prices which are historically high but availability. This is my investment advice – simply watch. Hurricane season is weeks away, flu or no flu. Another thing to watch for is fertilizer. Farmers are unable to buy fertilizer (legacy prices) and there are questions about the coming harvest because of drought and no (or little) fertilizer for some crops.

I know there is something quaintly old fashioned about oil and food, but no substitute for either of these is available at the moment. The tactic of the now – on Wall Street and elsewhere – is to ignore oil and food and hope for the best.

I would feel better about a bull market if there was some ‘Big Idea’ behind it. Something like the Internet or offshoring jobs or credit expansion … ot molten-salt Thorium reactors. Otherwise, what passes for a bull run is a short squeeze. Interesting but not very sustainable.

I pay a lot of attention to what people do out in the real world. Ordinary folk are scared shitless. They don’t own stock- they are planting gardens, buying guns and ammunition, getting ready to home- school their kids; some are buying farms and learning organic agriculture. Wow! Gardening is the new shopping; it’s hard to have a sense of humor about this since big shopping malls are full of vacant stores and the parking lots are car- free. No customers equals no business. The economy appears to be unravelling from the bottom up, not from Wall Street down.

I guess this makes me a bear (or a realist) but the markets from a technical sense needs both bulls and bears to function. One of the commenters on the old FNN used to say, “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.” I don’t know about climbing a wall of resigned desperation, but eventually a real bull market will come. Just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, both bulls and bears get their respective moments in the sun … not necessarily when desired.

One thing to keep in mind is that in this market – post 2004 – is wicked. Whatever is the most destructive outcome is also the most likely.