Let’s take a look @ the petroleum markets:

Energy

Looks like crude markets are bubbles in the process of ‘blowing off’, just like the reactors @ Fukushima. Time to hit the relief valves as the skyrocketing price aims to disrupt credit, politics … everything.

Here’s a weekly chart of the Brent front months from Estimable TFC Chartsss:

 It’s hard to see how this price level for the most vital of resources can be good for the world’s economies. This high price feeds through industrial agriculture to effect the price of food on folks’ tables. It also makes business more expensive without increasing output.

Here’s the monthly CBOT corn chart. Aside from on spike month in 2008, the price of corn today is much higher than it was during that year with much higher open interest.

 

Corn is really a derivative of crude oil, partly due to the increase in biofuel/ethanol production, part of the incredible American Establishment’s ‘Food for Carz’ program! Another reason is because so much crude is required to grow and process the corn. The crude- driven price spike is going to ripple outward into all categories: higher prices for food and food products (that have corn as an ingredient), higher ethanol prices and higher amounts of subsidy (larger Federal deficits), higher prices for corn substitutes such as cane sugar and more pressure on soil, water and farmland prices.

Keep in mind, the corn price can actually go much higher before it crashes. People need to eat, want to drive. At some point the want/need inflection point will be reached but probably not until more destabilizing food riots begin …

Meanwhile, here is a Comex weekly gold chart:

 

On one hand, this has the look of an unstoppable bull market. At the same time, the long- side speculators seem to be taking profits and exiting as open interest isn’t following the price trend. I think the gold market is leading the crude market right now; if and when gold breaks down, the energy and food complex will follow. Gold is a pure sentiment play with a small supply component. Nobody needs gold any more than anyone needs a Cadillac. This leaves the gold bulls vulnerable to a change in sentiment that doesn’t exist in the food markets. People have very strong sentiments about eating, much less so about speculating in gold.

Gold also lacks institutional support as do the stock plungers who have the Fed supplying POMO on an almost daily basis.

One reason for the big jump in gold prices is that the central banks have stopped selling which they were doing on a continuing basis for approximately 20 years. Complicated analysis is not needed; when hundreds of tons of gold are taken off the market, continuing buying pressure will force up prices on supply issues alone.

Meanwhile, not much has been spoken of about Fukushima Follies of late. I guess this means the problems have been solved and everyone can go back to sleep/innovating/selling drugs/lying to themselves. Even Arne Gunderson @ Fairewinds Associates has little to say.

One reason for this is because the utility seems to have clamped down on information releases. Here’s the stifled Gunderson:

The NRC, the Nuclear Industry, and TEPCo are Limiting the Flow of Information from Fairewinds Associates.

Another set of ???? has to do with reactor 4. First of all there is no decent video of the explosion which took place on the 15th. Here’s a crappy time- lapse vid from a news photographer on the scene;

This was reported by phone by Hitoshi Katanoda, a photographer on the scene, who minutes ago called Forbes contributor Yas Idei in Tokyo. Here is Idei’s description of the conversation:

“Hitoshi of Polaris who is near the plant just called me. It is a panic there. No way to escape as gas station are closed and rescuers are all gone.”

In another message, Idei says: The level of radiation is three times higher than normal in Tokyo.

Those were indeed the good ol’ days, my friends. Back when radiation was ‘only’ three- times higher! What will it be tomorrow?

The ‘official story’ is that the spent fuel pool @ the top of the reactor containment lost water due to a crack or because of reactor core being stored within boiled the water off. The fuel rods became exposed, overheated, generated hydrogen leading to an explosion and fire in the service area.

What seems more likely is that the plant management simply forgot the spent fuel in all the rooftop pools and neglected to send workers to check the water levels after the quake. In all the confusion, the reactor Dirty Harrys lost track themselves leaving the water to either drain or boil to the point of meltdowns and fires within the pools. In the reactor 4 fuel pool, the consequence was a steam- plus hydrogen explosion followed with a fuel cladding fire accompanying a stream of radiation out of the blasted reactor building.

How embarrassing!

This should look familiar to readers of this blog:

This image is from unknown Japanese media company. Note the brief but effective explosion analysis …

Here is something else to look at: (please click on image for a large view)

The line represents the upper levels of the two reactor containments of units 3 and 4 (on the right). Above the lines are the reactor service areas. These are basically large, empty rooms that are not strongly constructed. The containments themselves on the other hand are very heavily built of steel- reinforced concrete.

As you can see, the holes in the wall of unit 4 are within the containment, in addition to the damage done to the service area. The force of the explosion blew out the wall of the containment, possibly contributing more to the leak of cooling water from the spent fuel pools in reactor 4.

There was several tons of spent fuel within the reactor 4 spent fuel pool in addition to the core of the reactor, removed for storage during maintenance. It is likely that this load of radioactive goo is now in the basement of the plant, quietly glowing …

At the top of the page, Dick Bruna’s 1950’s brainstorm Miffy the now- altered little girl bunny who has millions of Japanese fans …