Failure in Syria



Planning for the Pentagon handover of northeastern Syria to Turkey last week took all of 15 minutes, about the length of a phone call.

Official US government photo: detail of the fateful October 16th meeting in the White House: from right: the president, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, Sen. Mitch McConnell (hidden behind Milley w/ blue striped tie), Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise; White House counsel Pat Cipollone; at the end of the table is president’s Congressional liaison Eric Ueland, Rep. Eliot Engel. Participants appear ready to crawl under the table in embarrassment. Even the eternally serene Ben Franklin is disgruntled. Milley’s body language says, “My brilliant career has become a farce”.

Fifteen minutes of planning produces clear winners and losers, mostly losers, mostly American.

The most disgraceful betrayal in American history. US special forces told me how Kurds protected and gave their lives for Americans. The Kurds trusted us and we outright betrayed them.
— anonymous comment

The five year American (and the half-hearted European effort) to remove Islamic State in its home territory in northern Syria has been undone in a matter of days with barely a shot being fired.

The US never mapped out a clear mission in Syria. Blame Obama for crafting the US’ tepid incrementalist Syria policy. The opening gambit in 2012 was a futile attempt to remove Assad using imported ‘moderate rebels’. The ability of Assad to survive and the appearance of ISIS in 2014 changed the plot into what became an air assault against the militant group. The US embraced the Syrian Kurdish militia because of their willingness to go nose-to-nose with ISIS, sparing the US and allies heavy ground force casualties. The effort was framed around The Big Lie: that Islamist Turkey is an ally of the West in the effort against ISIS. Instead, the terror group was a proxy: supplied and supported by Ankara; there was for a brief period a brisk oil trade between them. ISIS was a stalking horse intended to gain control over oil regions in Syria and Iraq; to capture as much territory as possible, massacre Kurds and Shiites, then for Turkey to move in with NATO blessing as ‘protector’ against the terror outfit. Once Turkish forces were in place they would never leave … as in Cyprus. Turkey’s strategy was obvious in 2014, even more obvious as today’s plan is identical; only the names have been changed. Instead of ISIS, the Kurdish allies of the US are identified by Turkey as ‘terrorists’ with the Turks invading presumably to protect the Kurds from themselves.

Meanwhile, Turkish forces have liberated hundreds of ISIS ‘associates’ from captivity in the Kurdish zone allowing them to escape back to Turkey.

The American effort to support a democratic, egalitarian and Western directed Kurdish alternative to single party rule by Assad or Islamic fundamentalists is set back, if not ended completely in Syria.

America’s Kurdish allies on the ground are now fighting for their lives, confronting the better equipped military of Turkey, Russian-backed Syrian government forces and ISIS militants looking to settle scores; all of them at once.

Russia has become the main outside player in Syria with the US forfeiting whatever influence it had gained with its five year effort.

Iran and Hezbollah are also winners in Syria. What looked to become an effective Kurdish political and military rival to Assadists on the ground in Syria has been neutered without the mullahs having to lift a finger. This leaves Israel facing jeopardy, it has lost a potential ally; at the same time the Israeli government — and others — must reconsider the depth of American support going forward.

Turkish boss Erdogan has gotten his way, someone should have reminded him to be careful of what you wish for. Stifling the PKK was the reason offered by Erdogan for his incursion, yet the invasion of Syria cannot have any effect on PKK operations inside Turkey. In fact, Kurdish guerillas in Turkey are safer than Kurdish civilians in Syria. Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds will not conveniently disappear. Fighting will continue. In a way, the Turks have put themselves in a box. If Turkish-backed Islamists cause more trouble outside of Syria, such as terror attacks in Europe, the US and EU will look toward Turkey as the culprit, as the responsible party.

Why general Milley looks like he wants to puke: the US military has suffered a blow to its prestige from which it may prove difficult or impossible to recover.

The Pentagon was caught by surprise, by the White House’s withdrawal order and the subsequent Turkish assault. Why it was unprepared is hard to understand coming after an almost identical order by the president in December, 2018. At least the first time around, Defense Secretary Mattis and Coalition Special Envoy Brett McGurk resigned. This time, the command structure completely broke down.

The Pentagon is upset because they just found out the Commander in Chief is some Turkish dude with a ‘1-800’ number.
— anonymous comment

US forces on the ground deserve blame for being caught by surprise even with the Turkish buildup in plain sight. The Pentagon is also at fault for its lack of imagination: the so-called ‘joint patrols’ with US and Turks were intelligence-gathering operations. US cajoling the Kurds into abandoning forward defenses to ‘placate’ the Turks was another gift to Erdogan. Blame the Pentagon for not providing the Kurds the means to defend themselves including anti-aircraft and anti-armor missiles. With proper support, the US would not to station forces in northern Syria at all. Blame the Pentagon for not expanding a no-fly zone over all of northern Syria since it already operates one over some parts northern Syria already. Blame US soldiers for not firing back after being fired upon. Blame the Kurds for for trusting the United States and not taking the steps to defend themselves. Blame NATO and the EU for sitting on their collective hands to protect business interests in Turkey over their security interests. Blame the Pentagon for being stupid, cowardly and dishonorable, for command being spineless careerists.

Blame US intelligence for being caught with its pants down as always. Blame them for not reporting in public the obvious relationship between ISIS and Turkey.

Most importantly, America’s ability to carry out any semblance of policy forward has been put into jeopardy. The president might not think so, but the ability to carry out policy is vital to the average American motorist. Americans view the Middle East as a gas pump: the plan is to get fuel by any possible means. This includes the current complex and intertwined diplomatic and military efforts. Middle Eastern exporters provide only a modest percentage of current US consumption, the rest of the world uses oil and a constraint anywhere is going to have knock on effects in the US.

The United States is a net oil exporter [PDF] in 1945, but by 1950 it is importing nearly one million barrels a day and within two decades the country is importing over six million barrels per day—more than a third of U.S. demand.
— Council on Foreign Relations

Since the 1970s, US priority has been supply. The US government in 1971 closed the Treasury gold window; causing the Bretton-Woods System of trans-national payments to fail. The US ended convertability because large fuel imports would cause the country to quickly run out of gold. In effect, the US government defaulted: gold-backed dollars were replaced by zero-cost Wall Street credit, whereby repayment becomes the obligation of third parties including the Middle Eastern oil states themselves. Economies were financialized and asset bubbles inflated with the cheap credit. Petroleum became but one asset among many others, so that increases in share prices, bonds or real estate would keep pace with or exceed whatever the price of petroleum might be at any moment. US military and intelligence agencies were directed to steal oil in the ground, or at least try. Oil states were pitted against each other, political cover was given to our momentary oil favorites. Wars and unrest across the region served to destroy consumption so it could be exported to America. Petroleum is fungible: a gallon of gas not wasted in Egypt or Iraq is a gallon available to be wasted in Burbank or Washington, DC.


Abandoned car in New York City in the 1960s (New York Times).

As a fuel price hedge and to escape dollar liabilities, Europeans adopted the euro, a kind of universal deutsche mark, a hard currency aimed at giving European consumers a payment advantage. Today, only the availability of credit keeps tight oil drillers afloat, as they are unable to match expenses with revenue.

These hedges and tactics have kept the status quo alive, so far. But all of these things rely entirely on US credibility = credit worthiness, that our word is our bond. When credibility vanishes, bluster by politicians, empty promises, currency games or market manipulation on Wall Street won’t keep the oil flowing. That’s when we’ll stop driving …

3 thoughts on “Failure in Syria

  1. Bachs_bitch

    Let’s assume the ME pops got to keep most of the value of their fossil fuels, like the Iranians actually did (to an extent) after their revolution. How would increasing living standards even work?

    Minus that oil input, the European & US economies wouldn’t have grown and created demand for more expensive oil. BAU may have collapsed by the 80s/90s. The ME could not have developed EU-style social democracies and currency/trading blocs without having some other region to squeeze cheap resources/labour out of, and any venture to find those would have crashed and burned against western interests.

  2. ellenanderson

    So when, exactly, will rural roads be safe for old folks, little kids and squirrels etc? WHEN will the carz stop??? Many endangered species would like to know!!
    Does the current situation in the repo markets signal that the Fed will start lending W/O proper collateral?
    You have been blogging for ten years now, at least. I am so grateful to you for continuing.
    E

  3. Volvo740...

    Like Ellen, I wonder if you have any thoughts on how things will unravel in practice for people in the US. It seems tro already be underway with tent cities popping up and people get pushed out, but do you foresee a gradual collapse or something more abrupt?
    Rural v.s. Cities?
    US v.s. Europe?

    Thanks again for your posts!

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